July 31,2026
Addis Ababa, (AMECO) — Concrete indicators that the TPLF is preparing for broad military conflict have mounted as key figures, including Debretsion Gebremichael, Fetlework Gebregziabher and army commander Migbey Haile, accelerate force mobilisation across Tigray. As the group ignores diplomatic calls for de-escalation, its co-founder turned sharp critic, Dr Aregawi Berhe, has warned that the movement remains ‘fundamentally a terrorist organisation from within’.
In a bid to supply forces for an anti-government coalition seeking to overthrow prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s democratically elected government by force of arms, TPLF hardliners have instituted draconian internal conscription measures across Tigray. The rigid stance has stalled international diplomatic initiatives, raising fears of a repeat of the 2020 conflict, which caused devastating casualties, destroyed essential services and set back regional development by decades.
Draft legislation circulating in the region mandates compulsory military service for all eligible individuals to prepare for renewed confrontation against federal forces. Refusing conscription or voicing political opposition carries sentences ranging from 5 to 25 years’ imprisonment, or potentially the death penalty.
‘Anyone who refuses conscription is branded a renegade and a traitor to the Tigrayan people, facing prison sentences ranging from 5 to 25 years – or even the death penalty,’ said Dr Aregawi. ‘This directly reflects the TPLF’s underlying political and ideological stance. They do not believe in negotiated settlements; they believe in achieving their ambitions through brute force.’
Tracing the movement’s political lineage to its foundational Marxist-Leninist League of Tigray (MLLT) core, Dr Aregawi stressed that the current command structure relies heavily on authoritarian coercion. ‘For years, they have claimed that “the TPLF and the Tigrayan people are one and the same”, which is both false and illogical. A political party is an ideological organisation, whereas a population is naturally pluralistic,’ Dr Aregawi added. ‘This is the classic nature of an authoritarian, ultra-leftist organisation… It is the behaviour of an authoritarian, almost fascist, entity.’
Commenting on Washington’s recent decision to impose targeted visa restrictions on TPLF figures, Dr Aregawi noted that early US support failed to achieve its goals because of the front’s intrinsic nature. ‘The US wanted a reliable ally to fight regional terrorism, which built that early relationship,’ he explained. ‘However, because the TPLF is fundamentally a terrorist organisation from within, those democratic objectives were never met. I don’t think [sanctions] will stop there, because the TPLF hardliners will not abandon their aggressive stance.’
