Addis Ababa, (AMECO)— The TPLF’s formation of an anti-government coalition with regional armed groups to remove Ethiopia’s democratically elected government by force marks a return to the secessionist doctrine that defined its earliest political platform. Key agitators, including Debretsion Gebremichael, Fetlework Gebregziabher and army commander Migbey Haile, are actively laying the groundwork for war, ignoring diplomatic calls for de-escalation and risking a cycle of destruction as severe as the 2020 conflict, which left the region’s human and physical infrastructure in ruins.
Following its loss of federal authority in 2018, the front’s hardline wing has reverted to its pre-1995 constitutional agenda, seeking external support from foreign actors, including Egypt, to pressure Addis Ababa. TPLF co-founder Dr Aregawi Berhe noted that having ruled the country through central control for nearly three decades, the current leadership believes military force is its only viable instrument.
‘The TPLF group operating in northern Ethiopia started as a positive organisation. However, through the course of the struggle, it changed its stance on Ethiopia and opted for secessionism, which divides people,’ Dr Aregawi said. ‘They are continuing to destabilise Ethiopia, opting for a secessionist agenda supported by foreign forces – and obviously by Egypt as well.’
Dr Aregawi dismissed claims by TPLF hardliners that Tigray faces an ‘existential threat’ from federal authorities, pointing out that prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s government offered a negotiated peace on equal terms under international oversight.
‘When a government offers you a peace deal on equal footing in front of the international community, what more could you ask for? Where is the real existential threat?’ Dr Aregawi asked. ‘Their “existential threat” narrative is entirely self-created and self-enforced.’
Recalling the onset of hostilities in 2020, Dr Aregawi warned that the hardline faction is repeating its previous strategy. ‘In 2020, TPLF forces advanced as far as Debre Sina, hoping alliance partners – such as OLF-Shene, Fano factions, the Ogaden National Liberation Front and other regional groups – would join them to march on the capital and recapture power,’ he said. ‘The TPLF’s objective is simple: if they can take national power in Ethiopia as they did in the past, they will. If they cannot, they will attempt to secede and declare a regional de facto state in Tigray.’
