𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐓𝐑𝐄𝐀 𝐒𝐇𝐎𝐔𝐋𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐏 𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐘𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐖𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐑-𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐄 𝐆𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐒 𝐖𝐈𝐓𝐇 𝐄𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐀

About the Author: Alemayehu Gebre-Mariam is an emeritus professor of political science at California State University and an attorney at law. He is a renowned commentator on Ethiopian and international affairs.

Disclaimer: The perspectives expressed in this article belong exclusively to the author and do not necessarily represent the editorial policy of Amhara Media Corporation.

𝐄𝐠𝐲𝐩𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐬:

1) Ethiopia cannot remain a prisoner of geography or accept permanent strategic encirclement.

It is madness for Eritrea and Egypt To believe they can use the Nile waters and Red Sea access as strategic instruments of Ethiopian containment. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. If Egypt and Eritrea want to use geography to deny Ethiopia access to the sea, then Ethiopia can weaponize the Blue Nile against Egypt and deny it access to Nile waters.

2) Ethiopia will not give up its sovereign and natural right to develop or access its resources or tolerate attacks on or threats to its territorial integrity and unity. These include supporting terrorists in Ethiopia, supplying them with weapons, invading Ethiopian territory, and causing death and destruction. Those who play with fire will get burned.

3) Ethiopia reserves its right to self-defense and to take any and all measures necessary to eliminate any Egypto-Eritrean direct or indirect cross-border attacks and threats of attacks.

These measures include pursuit of attacking forces deep into Eritrean territory and establishment of a broad defensive buffer or security zone to repel or prevent further attacks. Ethiopia has every right under international law to take preventive action against repeated Eritrean incursions and aggression, attacks on its citizens, the arming of insurgents, or the systematic undermining of its national security.

The Eritrean regime may indulge in the insane illusion that it can put a geographic straitjacket around Ethiopia and deny it sea access. That will not happen. In the words of Hamlet: “Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t.” Afewerki’s madness has no method in it. He may think his strategy of geographically straitjacketing Ethiopia is cunning, but it is insanity for him to play with such provocative fire.

The Eritrean regime has a simple choice: negotiate in good faith and pursue regional cooperation. If it persists in its policy of confrontational containment, it will be game over.

Ethiopia seeks peace. That is why PM Abiy Ahmed went to Asmara in 2018 to meet Afewerki and ended a 20-year-old no-peace, no-war situation.

A word to the wise: Afewerki should stop playing a poker game with Ethiopia’s existential interests. His delusion of a strategic buffer/security zone in Ethiopia, manned by the mercenary TPLF, is gone. Gone with the wind. Forever. The winds of history in the Horn are shifting, and those who mistake Ethiopia’s patience for weakness will soon discover, too late, that they have crossed a point of no return.

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐝, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧—𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐤𝐢 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐨𝐦𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠.

𝐀𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐤𝐢 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫-𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚: 𝐍𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐞𝐚 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬.
𝐅𝐨𝐫 “𝐆𝐨𝐝 𝐠𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐚𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐛𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧: 𝐧𝐨 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞.”

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐛𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐮𝐞, 𝐠𝐢𝐯𝐞-𝐚𝐧𝐝-𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞. 𝐎𝐫 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞—𝐚 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭, 𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝, 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧, 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

𝐀 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚
𝐖𝐈𝐓𝐇 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐥𝐚𝐰, 𝐚 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚, 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐞𝐜𝐡, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐥 𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬;
𝐚𝐧𝐝
𝐖𝐈𝐓𝐇𝐎𝐔𝐓 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧/𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫, 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞, 𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭, 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐧𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐣𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐬.

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐛𝐞!