𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐔𝐍𝐇𝐎𝐋𝐘 𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐓𝐑𝐄𝐀-𝐓𝐏𝐋𝐅 𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐀𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐀𝐆𝐀𝐈𝐍𝐒𝐓 𝐄𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐀 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐀: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫-𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚

About the Author
Alemayehu G. Mariam is Professor Emeritus at California State University and an attorney at law. He is a renowned political commentator on Ethiopian and international affairs.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of AMECO AFRICA. They are strictly those of the author.

“… You have the separatists. They were attacking inside of Ethiopia… And you have an Ethiopian response… We understand the challenge they [Ethiopians] are facing from the separatists…and obviously, no one is supportive of terrorism and the terrorist attacks that came against them [Ethiopians], drone attacks against their own capital…”

On October 17, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concerns about the increasing military tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea that may lead to regional war. He urged mutual de-escalation, reciprocal respect for national sovereignty, and peace diplomacy.

Both Ethiopia and the United States have the same strategic interest in fighting terrorism and achieving stability and security in the Horn of Africa region. Today, both of them face a common enemy: an unholy alliance of a terror group known as the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) and its state sponsor, the Eritrean regime.

The critical issue is whether a proxy war waged by this alliance could threaten not only Ethiopian sovereignty and the stability of the Horn but also the strategic interests of America in the region.

A fundamental geopolitical realignment is taking place in the Horn of Africa, especially in the Trump administration’s new approach to Ethiopia.

The difference between how the Biden administration responded to the terrorist war ignited by the TPLF in northern Ethiopia in 2020-2022 and the security-driven approach that defines the policies of the Trump administration is indicative of the different priorities that are now guiding United States’ approach towards Ethiopia. These changes coupled with the renewed and reinvigorated Ethiopia-US cooperation and increasing concerns over regional destabilization suggests the need for a strong US-Ethiopian alliance and partnership for peace and security in the Horn of Africa.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐤 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

During the TPLF’s 2020–2022 terrorist war, which began with the massacre of hundreds of members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s Northern Command, senior Biden administration officials, including Antony Blinken, Susan Rice, and Samantha Power, stood firmly in support of the TPLF. They left no stone unturned to isolate Ethiopia diplomatically, restrict access to loans and other support from the World Bank and the IMF, demonize Ethiopia in the global media for alleged human rights violations and encourage internal opposition in the name of press freedom.

To add insult to injury, the Biden administration removed Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) program, a decision that cost thousands of low-income Ethiopians their jobs.

But the Biden administration miscalculated: for all its toughness, the Ethiopian government remained even tougher. Rather than succumbing to pressure, Ethiopia stood her ground, held her head up high and never backed down.

𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐑𝐮𝐛𝐢𝐨 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐚𝐝𝐞, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐚𝐝𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐏𝐋𝐅 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐰𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝.

The Trump administration’s firm stand against terrorism in Ethiopia is nothing new. Six years ago, the Trump administration delivered a similar message.

On November 4, 2020, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the TPLF attack and declared, “The United States stands with the people of Ethiopia and will work with all who are committed to peace, prosperity, democracy, and the rule of law.”

On November 15, 2020, Tibor Nagy, the Trump administration’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, issued a stinging denunciation: “The United States strongly condemns the TPLF’s unjustifiable attacks against Eritrea on November 14 and its efforts to internationalize the conflict in Tigray. We continue to urge immediate action to protect civilians, deescalate tensions, and restore peace.”

On December 1, 2020, Nagy reiterated this position in a BBC interview, stating, “It is important to remember here there is not equivalency. You have a sovereign government and a region of Ethiopia the leadership of which basically started a conflict against the government… The Tigrean leadership… wanted to use the opportunity basically to overthrow the prime minister and return to the type of privilege that they had enjoyed within the Ethiopian state for the last 27 years…”

On October 17, 2026, Secretary Rubio reaffirmed Ethiopia’s sovereign right to defend itself against terrorism. Such is the remarkable consistency of the Trump administration’s policy against terrorism in the Horn of Africa and its commitment to regional stability.

The larger irony lies in the fact that the TPLF, once classified as a Tier III terrorist organization by the US State Department and became a favorite partner of the Biden administration in Africa, has been called out by the Trump administration for its terrorism and destabilizing role in Ethiopia and the region.

The Trump administration clearly understands Ethiopia’s strategic significance as the second-most populous country in Africa and an international diplomatic hub. As host of the African Union headquarters, Ethiopia occupies a central position in the political and security architecture of the Horn of Africa. As Secretary Rubio’s remarks suggest, Ethiopia’s security and stability has consequences not only for its neighbors but also for the stability of the wider region, regional trade, counterterrorism efforts, and migration.

A new and strengthened U.S.–Ethiopia strategic relationship is essential for long-term stability in the Horn of Africa. As Secretary Rubio suggested, regional cooperation is necessary to fight terrorism, secure borders, and coordinate military efforts to ensure that local conflicts do not escalate into wider regional wars.

On November 10, 2024, I published a commentary titled “Regime Change in America: Dawn of a New Era in Ethiopia–U.S. Relations.” I predicted that relations between Ethiopia and the United States would improve significantly under the Trump administration. That prediction has now come to pass.

The relationship between the United States and Ethiopia has recently been energized by a number of agreements that deal with various aspects of defense, diplomacy, economic development, and health care.

The US and Ethiopia entered into the Bilateral Structured Dialogue Framework Agreement in Washington D.C. on May 11, 2026. This Framework establishes high-level dialogues on economic prosperity and trade, defense and security collaboration, and regional peace and stability. The Framework is intended to act as a formal tool of coordination of the key regional issues, which include Nile water dispute, the Sudan civil war, and Red Sea security.

In August 2026, the two countries have agreed to expand their relations to include comprehensive strategic cooperation in defense and security following consultations by the Pentagon. The cooperation seeks to foster common interests and trust as well as work jointly in ensuring peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.

The cooperation between the two countries is not limited to only diplomacy and security but extends to the health sector too. In December 2025, the two countries entered into a Health Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding for five years worth $1.6 billion. The USA promised to give over $1 billion in grants where Ethiopia was to contribute $450 million towards the construction of better health facilities and fighting diseases like HIV/AIDS and Malaria.

These agreements lay the groundwork for an overarching strategic partnership between the United States and Ethiopia. Successful implementation of these agreements will serve to enhance mutual trust, pursue common security goals, deepen economic and development cooperation and ensure lasting peace and stability in the region of the Horn of Africa. A stable U.S.–Ethiopia relationship provides a strong foundation for a stable and prosperous Horn of Africa.

Secretary Rubio’s remarks highlight the emerging challenge posed by Eritrea’s use of the TPLF as a proxy to wage war against Ethiopia. Will Eritrea refrain from backing armed proxies that wage war in Ethiopia, destabilize the region, or engage in unilateral military misadventures?

As the age-old adage states, “A stitch in time saves nine.” It is now time for the United States to exert pressure on Eritrea to stop supporting terrorism and armed proxy groups in the region. Eritrea must choose the path of peaceful settlement of disputes, respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of its neighbors and adhere to international law.

I believe that the changes in the U.S.-Ethiopian relationship indicate a larger and more strategic reality, namely that there will be no peace in the Horn of Africa if Ethiopia’s strategic significance is undermined; state-sponsors of terrorism are allowed to act with impunity and armed factions operate freely. Most importantly, there will be no peace in the Horn of Africa if Ethiopia’s quest for legitimate access to the sea is denied or delayed!

What is needed is a strategy that recognizes Ethiopia’s strategic importance to the United States, respects its sovereignty, addresses its legitimate security concerns, and encourages peaceful political settlements. If renewed U.S.–Ethiopia engagement translates into concrete cooperation, it could provide a solid starting point for regional peace and stability.

The alternative is to risk allowing the emergence of a newest branch of “Al-Shabaab- Asmara,” further endangering Ethiopia, the United States, and the wider region.

“A stitch in time saves nine.” The time for preventive diplomacy is now. The United States should make clear to Eritrea that supporting armed proxies and enabling terrorism will carry serious consequences.

In 2017, President Trump declared the fight against terrorism is a “battle between good and evil,” not a fight between “different faiths, different sects, or different civilizations.”

Today, the United States and Ethiopia must forge a sacred alliance for peace to defeat the Axis of Evil—the axis of an unholy alliance perpetrating terrorism, violence, and destabilization across the Horn of Africa. Together, they must eradicate the scourge of terrorism from the region once and for all.