Disclaimer:ย Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent Amhara Media Corporation.
Professor Alemayehu Gebremariam is a California State University political science professor, attorney, and renowned political commentator on Ethiopian affairs.
#Opinion
The African Union has appointed former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to support peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, including confidence-building, dialogue, and implementation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. The AU and UN have continued to call on the signatories to use the Pretoria framework and mechanisms to resolve outstanding disputes.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ (๐๐๐๐ -๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญโ๐๐๐๐ -๐) ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฐ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ โ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐จ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ ๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฒ; ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ โ๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฌ.โ
In July 2017, I wrote a commentary entitled, โThe Zero-Sum Negotiation Games of the T-TPLF in Ethiopia,โ in which I identified 10 strategies the TPLF has used to do smoke and mirrors (make believe) negotiations with its adversaries.
Read here:
shorturl.at/iiw8J
๐๐๐๐ -๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐: ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ, ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ, ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฒ, ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ซ. ๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐. ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐. ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ฅ๐๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐จ๐ฆ.
๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ , ๐ง๐๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ค๐๐ง. ๐๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ค ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฏ๐จ๐ข๐ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.
๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ ๐ณ๐๐ซ๐จ-๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐. ๐๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ค ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ, ๐ฌ๐ก๐ซ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ค๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐. ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ, ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ, ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐.
There is one game TPLF-P is most afraid to play: Pretoria Agreement. That agreement provides for permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, restoration of constitutional order and services, humanitarian access, political dialogue and transitional justice and monitoring and verification.
The TPLF formally followed the Pretoria Agreement until the situation deteriorated significantly in 2025, when the hardline TPLF-P faction launched a de facto coup against the federal-backed interim administration. By mid-July 2026, the TPLF had declared the agreement “effectively dead,” and is now pursuing futile suicidal military adventurism.
TPLF-P should think had about its endgame. The battlefield situation has changed dramatically since they launched their disastrous war in November 2020. The proliferation of drones and unmanned systems have created opportunities for “kill zones” where traditional large-unit movements are detected and instantly destroyed.
Drones turn concealed tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft systems and large caches of small arms into instant toast. Unremitting surveillance, reconnaissance drones, FPV drones, and precision strike capabilities have made large troop concentrations and exposed armored movements sitting ducks. In this tactical war zone situation and combat operations, TPLF-P will sacrifice thousands of its forcefully conscripted child soldiers in killing zones.
The lesson for TPLF-P should be unmistakable: the old deception-negotiation game has reached its limits. No serious political future can be built on permanent brinkmanship. No outside relationshipโwhether with Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, or any other actorโcan substitute for a sustainable Ethiopian political settlement. Foreign backing cannot solve Tigray’s fundamental political problems or guarantee victory. Only Ethiopian solutions to ethiopian problems!
And there is a harder and harsher reality TPLF-P must face: there is no strategic wisdom in starting a war you cannot finish. Six years ago, the TPLF had the support of the crooked Biden administration when it launched a cowardly attack on the Ethiopian Northern Command. They were able to mobilize the Biden administration to immobilize Ethiopia with sanctions and other punitive actions.
It is a different day. A few days ago, Ethiopia and the United States agreed to elevate their bilateral military and security ties into a comprehensive strategic defense partnership following high-level talks at the Pentagon. The Trump administration donโt take no mess from TPLF-P. That is the clear message of Ambassador Massingaโs tweet.
The fact of the matter is that another round of armed confrontation will bring enormous destruction without producing a durable political victory. A snowball has a much better chance of going through hell intact than the TPLF restoring itself to power in Ethiopia. TPLF-Pโs provocations will achieve nothing except sacrificing another generation of Tigrayan and Ethiopian lives for political objectives that should be pursued at the dialogue table.
TPLF-P wants to have its cake and eat it too. It wants to continue its military adventurism while pretending to negotiate with the Ethiopian federal government. The only thing it is going to eat, if it does not come to the Pretoria table soon, is the manna of fire from the skies.
So the choice before the TPLF-P is simple:
Return to Pretoria. Whatever issues TPLF-P has with the Ethiopian federal government can be addressed at the dialogue table within the framework of the Pretoria Agreement. Pursue political objectives politically, not through military adventurism.
End the futile cycle of military provocation, mobilization, escalation and destruction. Save the children of Tigray!
Open Tigray for full humanitarian access.
TPLF-P: The time for political theater is over.
TPLF-P: The time for manufactured crises is over.
TPLF-P: The time for war games is over.
Game Over!
What time is it?
It is Pretoria Time!
๐๐๐๐ -๐: ๐๐๐ซ๐ฉ๐ ๐๐ข๐๐ฆ!”
๐๐๐๐ -๐: ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐.
