Addis Ababa, (AMECO)–Asmara’s reliance on proxy warfare against Ethiopia threatens to trigger widespread instability across the Horn of Africa, an American geopolitical analyst has warned.
Writing in a recent assessment titled Eritrea’s Hybrid War on Ethiopia Threatens To Set The Whole Horn Ablaze, analyst Andrew Korybko argued that President Isaias Afwerki’s regime is pursuing a strategic goal of preventing Ethiopia from emerging as a dominant regional power, according to a report by ENA.
According to Korybko, Eritrea is conducting a hybrid warfare campaign against Addis Ababa that combines political pressure, covert support for anti-peace insurgent groups, and deliberate efforts to undermine Ethiopian economic growth and national cohesion.
“Eritrea conceptualizes its security as being ensured by a weak Ethiopia,” Korybko wrote.
The assessment mirrors comments made in late June by Getachew Reda, adviser to the Ethiopian prime minister on East African affairs. Speaking at the Ethiopian National Defence College’s annual national security conference, Getachew stated that Eritrean strategic calculations depend on keeping Ethiopia politically and economically fragile.
Economic offers rejected
Korybko noted that Addis Ababa has repeatedly proposed expanding bilateral economic cooperation, including strategic infrastructure partnerships tied to reliable and unrestricted sea access. However, authorities in Asmara rejected these overtures, viewing closer economic integration as strategically detrimental to their regional standing.
In response, Ethiopia is pursuing a dual-track strategy: accelerating domestic infrastructure projects while intensifying diplomatic efforts to secure maritime access and build regional alliances.
Broader geopolitical dynamics
The regional security landscape has grown increasingly volatile due to Cairo’s strategic alignment with Asmara, the analyst cautioned. Egypt is allegedly utilizing Eritrea as a proxy to contain Ethiopia, elevating bilateral friction into a wider geopolitical confrontation.
“The real threat to regional peace comes from Egypt, but the most direct one comes from Eritrea,” Korybko warned, comparing the dynamics to dangerous proxy rivalries in other international theatres.
Without sustained diplomatic intervention, confidence-building measures, or decisive international pressure on Asmara to de-escalate, Korybko concluded that the fragile peace in the Horn of Africa risks severe breakdown.
