Disclaimer:<\/b>\u00a0Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent Amhara Media Corporation.
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Professor Alemayehu Gebremariam is a California State University political science professor, attorney, and renowned political commentator on Ethiopian affairs.
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#Opinion<\/p>\n
The African Union has appointed former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to support peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, including confidence-building, dialogue, and implementation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. The AU and UN have continued to call on the signatories to use the Pretoria framework and mechanisms to resolve outstanding disputes.<\/p>\n
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In July 2017, I wrote a commentary entitled, \u201cThe Zero-Sum Negotiation Games of the T-TPLF in Ethiopia,\u201d in which I identified 10 strategies the TPLF has used to do smoke and mirrors (make believe) negotiations with its adversaries.<\/p>\n
Read here:
\nshorturl.at\/iiw8J<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05-\ud835\udc0f \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc29\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc32\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc28\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05 \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e: \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc24 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc31\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2d, \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc30 \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c, \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc33\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc32, \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1e.<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc13\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc29\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b. \ud835\udc05\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05 \ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e. \ud835\udc00 \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e. \ud835\udc16\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc25\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1d, \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28 \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc26.<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc05\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05, \ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc28\ud835\udc1f \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc24\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27. \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28 \ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc24 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc21\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc20 \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc24 \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc30\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1f\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2f\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc26\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27.<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc01\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e, \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05 \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc29\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc28\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc33\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc28-\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc26 \ud835\udc20\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc2f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc25\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e. \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc24 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b, \ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc30\ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1c \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc24\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc27 \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc30\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1d. \ud835\udc16\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2e\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc32, \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2d, \ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc28 \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2f\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc32 \ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc1f.<\/p>\n
There is one game TPLF-P is most afraid to play: Pretoria Agreement. That agreement provides for permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, restoration of constitutional order and services, humanitarian access, political dialogue and transitional justice and monitoring and verification.<\/p>\n
The TPLF formally followed the Pretoria Agreement until the situation deteriorated significantly in 2025, when the hardline TPLF-P faction launched a de facto coup against the federal-backed interim administration. By mid-July 2026, the TPLF had declared the agreement “effectively dead,” and is now pursuing futile suicidal military adventurism.<\/p>\n
TPLF-P should think had about its endgame. The battlefield situation has changed dramatically since they launched their disastrous war in November 2020. The proliferation of drones and unmanned systems have created opportunities for “kill zones” where traditional large-unit movements are detected and instantly destroyed.<\/p>\n
Drones turn concealed tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft systems and large caches of small arms into instant toast. Unremitting surveillance, reconnaissance drones, FPV drones, and precision strike capabilities have made large troop concentrations and exposed armored movements sitting ducks. In this tactical war zone situation and combat operations, TPLF-P will sacrifice thousands of its forcefully conscripted child soldiers in killing zones.<\/p>\n
The lesson for TPLF-P should be unmistakable: the old deception-negotiation game has reached its limits. No serious political future can be built on permanent brinkmanship. No outside relationship\u2014whether with Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, or any other actor\u2014can substitute for a sustainable Ethiopian political settlement. Foreign backing cannot solve Tigray’s fundamental political problems or guarantee victory. Only Ethiopian solutions to ethiopian problems!<\/p>\n
And there is a harder and harsher reality TPLF-P must face: there is no strategic wisdom in starting a war you cannot finish. Six years ago, the TPLF had the support of the crooked Biden administration when it launched a cowardly attack on the Ethiopian Northern Command. They were able to mobilize the Biden administration to immobilize Ethiopia with sanctions and other punitive actions.<\/p>\n
It is a different day. A few days ago, Ethiopia and the United States agreed to elevate their bilateral military and security ties into a comprehensive strategic defense partnership following high-level talks at the Pentagon. The Trump administration don\u2019t take no mess from TPLF-P. That is the clear message of Ambassador Massinga\u2019s tweet.<\/p>\n
The fact of the matter is that another round of armed confrontation will bring enormous destruction without producing a durable political victory. A snowball has a much better chance of going through hell intact than the TPLF restoring itself to power in Ethiopia. TPLF-P\u2019s provocations will achieve nothing except sacrificing another generation of Tigrayan and Ethiopian lives for political objectives that should be pursued at the dialogue table.<\/p>\n
TPLF-P wants to have its cake and eat it too. It wants to continue its military adventurism while pretending to negotiate with the Ethiopian federal government. The only thing it is going to eat, if it does not come to the Pretoria table soon, is the manna of fire from the skies.<\/p>\n
So the choice before the TPLF-P is simple:
\nReturn to Pretoria. Whatever issues TPLF-P has with the Ethiopian federal government can be addressed at the dialogue table within the framework of the Pretoria Agreement. Pursue political objectives politically, not through military adventurism.<\/p>\n
End the futile cycle of military provocation, mobilization, escalation and destruction. Save the children of Tigray!<\/p>\n
Open Tigray for full humanitarian access.<\/p>\n
TPLF-P: The time for political theater is over.<\/p>\n
TPLF-P: The time for manufactured crises is over.<\/p>\n
TPLF-P: The time for war games is over.<\/p>\n
Game Over!<\/p>\n
What time is it?<\/p>\n
It is Pretoria Time!<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05-\ud835\udc0f: \ud835\udc02\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26!”<\/p>\n
\ud835\udc13\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc0b\ud835\udc05-\ud835\udc0f: \ud835\udc04\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1b\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc1a \ud835\udc00\ud835\udc20\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc26\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc2d \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc27\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc0c\ud835\udc00\ud835\udc0a\ud835\udc04 \ud835\udc04\ud835\udc13\ud835\udc07\ud835\udc08\ud835\udc0e\ud835\udc0f\ud835\udc08\ud835\udc00 \ud835\udc06\ud835\udc11\ud835\udc04\ud835\udc00\ud835\udc13 \ud835\udc00\ud835\udc06\ud835\udc00\ud835\udc08\ud835\udc0d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Disclaimer:\u00a0Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent Amhara Media Corporation. Professor Alemayehu Gebremariam is a California State University political science professor, attorney, and renowned political commentator on Ethiopian affairs. #Opinion The African Union has appointed former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to support peace and stability in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":2567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,10],"tags":[],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-2565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-featured","category-magazines"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2565"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2565\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2568,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2565\/revisions\/2568"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2565"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ameco.et\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=2565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}